Coronavirus in Poland. There is one bad scenario for the coronavirus epidemic in Europe: 20200324AD

In practice, in the fight against the epidemic, the Polish government made two basic decisions: to close the borders and to introduce universal quarantine. Both decisions are ineffective:

Data analysis shows that, contrary to intuition, home quarantine and closing borders used in Poland do not work and have greater psychological significance
Poland is far too few tests; we should test a much broader risk group
We are not effective enough to find infected
The incidence curve in Poland is similar to other European countries, except that it operates with a delay
There will be no presidential elections in May because we will have too many patients
In Friday's message to the nation, President Andrzej Duda lied three times in the first three sentences.

"We have so far prevented an avalanche increase in the number of infected" - this is the first lie.

"According to specialists, we are approaching a key moment in the fight against the epidemic" - this is the second lie.

"The rapidly growing number of infections is always the result of recklessness and disregard for basic safety rules" - this is the third lie.

Minister Szumowski in an interview for "Wprost" said: "We see two scenarios for the spread of the virus." Only one can be seen in the statistics on the increase in incidence in Europe. The second, Asian, requires completely different measures than those taken in Poland. In practice, in the fight against the epidemic, the government made two basic decisions: closing the borders and introducing universal quarantine. Both decisions are ineffective.

"We have so far prevented avalanche from growing infected"
It's not true. The dynamics of infection growth in Poland is as exact as in other countries. It's just that the virus came to the country relatively late, so the growth curve is shifted towards Italy by four weeks. When the outbreak starting point is leveled to the first 50 cases, it is clear that infection lines in European countries overlap. The exception is Italy, where threats were completely neglected at the beginning of the epidemic.

There is no reason to believe that in Poland the number of infected will not increase at an avalanche rate according to the pattern known from other countries. This can be seen more clearly when we trace the disease from patient's day "0". In Poland and the Czech Republic this growth was much faster than in Germany or even Italy:
This means that after the appearance of patients in Poland, we were not very effective in finding infected. This should not come as a surprise when you listen to the voices of doctors who talk about how long they are waiting for the results of tests on patients and people who have had contact with them. Given the incubation period of the disease and the slowness of diagnosis, it should be assumed that we have thousands, not hundreds of patients (exactly the same phenomenon occurred in Wuhan).

The more so that the actions taken by the government are ineffective. This is best seen in the example of closing borders.
Closing the Polish borders was one of the first decisions of Mateusz Morawiecki's government. It is the realization of the atavistic primary reflex - "in your own village safer", "threat comes from outside", "stranger is dangerous". Closing borders is a symbol of the effectiveness of power and proof of the validity of its national policy: "When a threat appears, we protect ourselves in our own homeland," "nation-states are effective in fighting a pandemic." Closing borders sells well.

The prime minister is proud to announce: "As the first country in Europe, we have introduced measures not to introduce new cases. The introduction of sanitary border control helps us slow down the influx of pandemics. "

This sentence consists of nothing but lies. Poland did not close its borders as the first in Europe. Hungary, Slovakia and Denmark did it before us. Closing the borders was not a means of "not introducing new cases." New cases flowed along the wide river without obstacles. Sanitary control is a myth. Temperature measurement has been taking place recently, tests are not done, and the Internet circulates photos of crowds at the Okęcie airport after landing aircraft from the "Return home" campaign.

Sanitary control comes down to completing the form and everyone goes home as usual, with the recommendation of a two-week quarantine. Those from the land border by car. Those from the airport as usual: by taxi or bus.

Effective sanitary control at borders was introduced in Asia, but it did not consist of filling out forms, but of testing all travelers for a virus test. Positive patients traveled by special transport to quarantine points, negative patients returned home calmly.

Numbers testify to the ineffectiveness of bureaucratic enchantment of reality.